What are my chances to see the Northern Lights?
Everyone coming to Lapland in winter wishes to witness the Northern Lights, but what are the actual chances of seeing them? In this article, we try to answer this question, as well as discuss this natural phenomenon and the factors to consider when hoping to see them. Let’s dive into it and answer some of the most common questions.
What are my chances to see the Northern Lights tonight?
If the sky is clear, you already have good chances! But, unfortunately, it is a bit more complicated than that.
Northern Lights are even more weather-dependent than other atmospheric phenomena: to see the Northern Lights, you need, other than darkness, both a clear sky and active solar activity.
Practically, this means that there could be active solar activity (the Auroras are in the sky) but, on a cloudy night with a covered sky, you will have less chance of seeing them. Or, some other time, you might have a perfectly clear sky but too low solar activity, meaning that the Northern Lights will not be seen either.
How do I know if this is a good night to see the Northern Lights?
If you are in Lapland between early September and mid-April, meaning that the nights are dark enough, then you should check for clouds and solar activity.
Cloud coverage forecast will give you an idea of the cloud situation in the area you are in. You may check it on the Finnish Meteorological Institute website or app and Windy: Clouds (Play Store – App Store) to monitor cloud movement every hour.
Solar activity is more complicated to forecast long-term, but there are several platforms you can use as a reference or check for live/short-term activity. For a general simplified overview, you can use one of the many apps, such as “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts” (Play Store – App Store). They often use the so-called KP index to evaluate the chances, but keep in mind that the KP index is not an ideal reference to estimate the probability of aurora showing up.
More reliable indicators of solar activity are in the live data, such as Bz and Bt. This data shows the live activity as well as a very short-term forecast. It can be found on platforms like SpaceWeatherLive. To evaluate the activity in a simplified way, negative Bz and positive Bt numbers are good indicators of strong auroral activity. Unfortunately, this data doesn’t provide a long-term forecast.
Note. With all the forecasts checked, you can get an idea of the weather conditions and solar activity estimates. However, there is no 100% way to predict auroras, and the weather is subject to change. At the end of the day, witnessing Auroras is also a matter of luck, which is what also makes it so special!
Can I see the Auroras on a cloudy night?
It’s not impossible, but it depends on the cloud coverage. If there is solar activity and this breaks through the clouds, you have a chance. With thin clouds and strong solar activity, you might see the Auroras even through the clouds! However, with thick clouds and a fully covered sky, it is unfortunately very unlikely that you will see any lights.
What should I do to see the Northern Lights then?
Aurora Hunting!
Seeing Auroras might not be so easy, and the city lights do not help. If you want to have better chances, then hunting is what you should do: drive away from the light pollution, find a good spot and… patiently wait. This is how it works, and it is all part of the experience!
Can Safartica take me Aurora Hunting?
Of course we can! We offer several tours during which you might be able to see the Northern Lights.
The Aurora Hunting Photo Tour and the Guaranteed Aurora Tour are the main hunting tours, but we also have Aurora Picnic, Aurora Ice Floating, the Northern Lights Search by Snowshoes, the Evening Escape by Snowmobile and the Northern Lights Safari by Electric Snowmobile.
What is the difference among these tours and how can I book?
The Guaranteed Aurora Tour and the Guaranteed Aurora Tour By Bus are the best way to maximize the possibility of seeing Auroras. The longer duration of 4–8 hours increases your chances, and each departure is planned based on the latest weather updates and aurora forecasts. A full refund is provided in case Northern Lights are not captured by our professional camera during the tour. Photos taken with a professional camera are also included in the price!
The Aurora Hunting Photo Tour is a shorter aurora hunting tour. It differs from the Guaranteed tours as no refund is provided in case auroras are not captured, but the price is cheaper. This tour is suitable for families with young children and for those who don’t feel like committing to an 8-hour drive over the night. Also, in this tour, photos taken with a professional camera are included. The Aurora Hunting Photo Tour drives up to a maximum of 200 km in total.
The advantage of these “aurora hunting tours” (Guaranteed Aurora Tours & Aurora Photo Tour) is that they don’t have a set location, so if the weather is cloudy, they drive where the sky is clearer.
Unlike the ones just mentioned, the Aurora Borealis Picnic Tour takes place in a fixed location. This activity includes a traditional Lappish picnic in one of the best locations for seeing the Northern Lights, but note that the chances to see the Auroras are limited by the weather forecasts.
Both the Aurora Hunting Photo Tour and the Aurora Borealis Picnic can be rescheduled before 16:00 for the more suitable day!
The Aurora Ice Floating and the other evening tours by snowshoes, snowmobiles or reindeer also give possibilities to view auroras. Just like the Aurora Picnic, these tours are limited by the weather at the location of the safari, but if you are lucky and the sky is clear, you might be able to see the Northern Lights! These tours can’t be rescheduled on the same day.
You can book a tour with us on our website or by sending us an email safartica@safartica.com for short-term bookings.
Do you wish to have more information or do you have further questions? Don’t hesitate to contact us; we are here for you!
